Daily Pulse · · 08:30 NY · market
Risk-on rally
Index moves
| Index | 1D | 1W |
|---|---|---|
| Rubin 100 | -0.08% | -3.96% |
| HALO 100 | +0.02% | -2.28% |
| Euro-AI 50 | +0.11% | -1.07% |
| AW25 | — | -1.21% |
Pattern alerts
- PFE support-confluence NEUTRAL
- NOC support-confluence WARNING
- MCD support-confluence WARNING
- UL support-confluence WARNING
- LMT support-confluence WARNING
Cointegration
1 active pair, 5 breaks.
§1 — Lede
🟡 Equity vol retreats while MOVE surges, flagging a bifurcated risk session on May 19.
§2 — Cross-asset regime
Gold $418.43 +0.27% · Bitcoin $76,702 -0.33% · TLT $83.56 -0.12%
GLD +0.27%, BTC −0.33%, TLT −0.12%. Gold holds, bonds soften, crypto is flat-to-lower — the trio prints a mildly risk-cautious, dollar-hedging posture rather than a clean risk-on or risk-off read.
§3 — Risk & dollar
DXY (dollar, UUP proxy) $27.70 -0.25% · VIX (equity vol) 17.82 -3.31% · VVIX (vol of vol) 91.18 -1.89% · VXN (Nasdaq vol) 24.21 -4.42% · MOVE (bond vol) 86.07 +7.76%
UUP −0.25% extends dollar softness. VIX −3.31% (17.82) and VXN −4.42% (24.21) compress together, yet MOVE +7.76% (86.07) spikes sharply — a textbook equity-bond vol divergence. VVIX at 91.18 sits elevated above its ~80 baseline, signalling that options on options remain bid even as front-line equity vol falls.
§4 — Asia overnight
Nikkei (EWJ) -0.16% · Hang Seng (EWH) -0.37% · Shanghai (MCHI) -0.49% · KOSPI (EWY) -1.54%
All four markets closed lower: KOSPI proxy led declines at −1.54%, Shanghai −0.49%, Hang Seng −0.37%, Nikkei nearly flat at −0.16%. Regional breadth was uniformly negative with Korea as the pressure point.
§5 — US yesterday
SPX (SPY) $738.65 · d -0.07% · w -0.09% · m +4.01%
NDX (QQQ) $705.88 · d -0.43% · w -1.04% · m +8.79%
DJI (DIA) $497.01 · d +0.33% · w -0.02% · m +0.56%
RUT (IWM) $275.97 · d -0.59% · w -3.28% · m +0.07%
DJI eked +0.33% while SPY was fractionally red (−0.07%); NDX −0.43% and RUT −0.59% underperformed. On the month NDX leads at +8.8% vs. RUT's near-flat +0.07% — a pronounced large-cap growth versus small-cap divergence.
§6 — S&P 500 sectors
Top-3 (5d): Energy +5.96% · ConsStaples +3.03% · HealthCare +1.87%
Bottom-3 (5d): Materials -3.90% · Utilities -2.66% · ConsDisc -2.56%
Energy (+1.92% day, +5.96% week) and Consumer Staples (+1.49% day, +3.03% week) lead; Tech (−1.08% day, −1.98% week) and Materials (−3.90% week) trail, signalling a defensive-and-value rotation intraday.
§7 — Europe today
DAX (EWG) +2.34% · FTSE (EWU) +2.33% · CAC (EWQ) +1.52%
DAX +2.34%, FTSE +2.33%, CAC +1.52% — Europe outperforms US on the session.
§8 — Reference portfolios
| Index | Day | Week | Month |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin 100 | -0.08% | -3.96% | +18.93% |
| HALO 100 | +0.02% | -2.28% | -4.70% |
| Euro-AI 50 | +0.11% | -1.07% | +4.72% |
| AW25 | — | -1.21% | +12.05% |
Rubin 100 leads on the month at +18.9% but is down −3.96% on the week; HALO 100 is −4.70% on the month — a 23-point monthly spread flags narrow-tape conditions. Euro-AI +4.72% and Agentic Winners 25">AW25 +12.05% on the month occupy the middle ground.
§9 — Generation phase
Layer 1 — Architects & IP w -3.40% · m +25.58%
Layer 2 — Manufacturing w -0.55% · m +12.55%
Layer 3 — Memory & Packaging w -7.12% · m +20.06%
Layer 4 — Substrates & Power w -2.92% · m +23.03%
Top sub-sectors (week): High-Speed Interconnects +9.61% · Lithography +2.79% · Foundry & Integration +1.61%
Lagging sub-sectors (week): Advanced Packaging & Bonding -11.80% · Photomasks & Mask Infrastructure -11.14% · Wafer Processing & Precision -9.16%
Layer 1 (Architects & IP) is the weekly laggard at −3.73% despite its +25.6% monthly lead. High-Speed Interconnects dominate the sub-sector leaderboard (+9.61% week); Advanced Packaging & Bonding (−11.80%) and Photomasks (−11.14%) are under sharp weekly pressure.
§10 — Money Temperature
Composite 57 🟡 · Label Risk-on rally · Instruments 8 contributing
Composite at 57 ('Risk-on rally') is constructive but not euphoric; 8 of 10 instruments contributing, leaving headroom for broader participation without signalling overextension.
§11 — Pattern Scanner
Active 25 signals · PFE 47 🟡 support-confluence · NOC 38 🟡 support-confluence · MCD 37 🟡 support-confluence · UL 29 🟡 support-confluence · LMT 26 🟡 support-confluence
25 active signals, all top-5 hits are support-confluence patterns. Four of five carry a 🔴 regime label (NOC, MCD, UL, LMT); only PFE (🟡, 47% confidence) prints caution rather than outright stress. The cluster in defensives and industrials is consistent with the sector rotation read.
§12 — Cointegration Lab
Active pairs 1 · Breaks 5
Only 1 active pair remains open against 5 recent breaks — an elevated break rate relative to active pairs, suggesting mean-reversion relationships are under structural stress this week.
§13 — Cross-read
The session's clearest signal is the MOVE/VIX split: equity traders are buying protection cheaply while bond vol spikes to 86, a combination that historically precedes cross-asset repricing rather than confirming sustained equity calm. Dollar softness (UUP −0.25%) and gold's modest bid reinforce a mild liquidity hedge, yet Money Temperature at 57 and Europe's broad +2%+ gains suggest the risk-off read is not yet consensus. Within equities, the narrative is selective: Rubin's +18.9% monthly gain is driven by a narrow Layer 1 / Interconnects cohort, while HALO's −4.7% monthly print and small-cap (RUT) near-flatness confirm the rally has thin participation. Pattern Scanner's defensive support-confluence cluster (MCD, LMT, NOC) aligns with the Energy/Staples sector leadership — positioning is rotating toward quality and yield without fully abandoning growth.
§14 — Watch next session
- MOVE index: if it holds above 90 intraday, bond vol is no longer a one-day anomaly — watch for TLT to break below 83.
- Rubin Layer 1 weekly loss: if −3.40% deepens past −5%, the month's +25.6% gain is at risk of mean-reverting further.
- VIX/VVIX re-coupling: if VVIX stays above 90 while VIX rebounds toward 19, the equity vol compression is false — watch SPY 735 as support.