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Pattern Lab · Methodology + live confluences

Support Confluence at Regression Channels.

For each instrument, fit four log-regression channels at horizons 63 / 126 / 252 / 504 trading days. Each channel's lower band — placed at K = 2 residual standard deviations below the fitted line — is a candidate support level. Lower bands within 2% of each other merge into one confluence point. Two or more horizons agreeing on the same price = high-probability support; four horizons agreeing = a structural floor.

2026-05-12as of
12instruments
6strong (≥ 3-horizon)
2weak (single-horizon)

The rule

A log-linear regression fits a straight line to log(close) over a rolling window. The lower channel boundary is the fitted line minus K standard deviations of the in-sample residuals, then exponentiated back to price space. Practically: the level below which roughly 2.5% of bars in the window have closed.

Running this at four horizons — 63, 126, 252, 504 bars, approximately 3 months / 6 months / 1 year / 2 years — produces four candidate supports. When two or more of those land on top of each other (within 2% of each other), the read is that the price level is significant across multiple time scales. That is the confluence concept: structural levels show up on multiple lenses.

Output sort: instruments where four horizons converge at one level appear first; instruments with only a single channel band visible rank last. Distance from current price tells you how far the floor sits below today.


Live confluences · sorted by strongest cluster

Ticker Name Price Strongest cluster Center Distance Horizons All clusters Chart
XLU Utilities $45.19 4-horizon $44.10 -2.4% 63 · 126 · 252 · 504 1 chart →
XLC Communication Services $115.86 4-horizon $111.70 -3.6% 63 · 126 · 252 · 504 1 chart →
XLY Consumer Discretionary $118.29 4-horizon $108.90 -7.9% 63 · 126 · 252 · 504 1 chart →
SPY S&P 500 ETF · Benchmark $738.18 4-horizon $663.46 -10.1% 63 · 126 · 252 · 504 1 chart →
XLRE Real Estate $44.58 3-horizon $41.20 -7.6% 63 · 126 · 252 2 chart →
XLP Consumer Staples $84.44 3-horizon $77.57 -8.1% 63 · 252 · 504 2 chart →
XLV Health Care $145.85 2-horizon $138.76 -4.9% 63 · 126 3 chart →
XLF Financials $51.58 2-horizon $48.94 -5.1% 63 · 252 3 chart →
XLI Industrials $174.35 2-horizon $165.15 -5.3% 126 · 252 2 chart →
XLB Materials $52.14 2-horizon $47.47 -9.0% 63 · 252 3 chart →
XLE Energy $57.57 1-horizon $56.50 -1.9% 126 4 chart →
XLK Technology $175.20 1-horizon $145.22 -17.1% 63 4 chart →

Per-instrument channels

The four lower bands and their distance from current price, per instrument. Where multiple rows on the same instrument share the same price, those are the cluster members. Where they're spread out, the instrument has been trending hard enough that the longer-horizon channel sits well below the shorter ones — the regression hasn't kept up.

XLU Utilities $45.19 4-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $44.46 $45.86 $47.29 -1.6%
126d $44.23 $46.65 $49.21 -2.1%
252d $44.13 $46.57 $49.14 -2.3%
504d $43.58 $46.51 $49.64 -3.6%
XLC Communication Services $115.86 4-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $110.30 $115.48 $120.89 -4.8%
126d $110.90 $115.76 $120.83 -4.3%
252d $112.11 $119.55 $127.50 -3.2%
504d $113.47 $123.16 $133.67 -2.1%
XLY Consumer Discretionary $118.29 4-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $108.88 $116.42 $124.47 -8.0%
126d $106.89 $114.66 $122.99 -9.6%
252d $110.69 $119.62 $129.27 -6.4%
504d $109.11 $123.36 $139.46 -7.8%
SPY S&P 500 ETF · Benchmark $738.18 4-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $667.41 $710.94 $757.31 -9.6%
126d $658.98 $695.82 $734.73 -10.7%
252d $675.72 $714.51 $755.53 -8.5%
504d $651.74 $705.42 $763.53 -11.7%
XLRE Real Estate $44.58 3-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $41.18 $43.58 $46.12 -7.6%
126d $41.84 $43.76 $45.77 -6.1%
252d $40.57 $42.52 $44.55 -9.0%
504d $39.16 $42.40 $45.92 -12.2%
XLP Consumer Staples $84.44 3-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $77.75 $81.36 $85.15 -7.9%
126d $80.03 $85.90 $92.19 -5.2%
252d $77.47 $82.96 $88.83 -8.3%
504d $77.49 $82.31 $87.44 -8.2%
XLV Health Care $145.85 2-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $137.54 $142.36 $147.35 -5.7%
126d $139.98 $146.95 $154.26 -4.0%
252d $144.67 $156.87 $170.09 -0.8%
504d $131.23 $145.73 $161.83 -10.0%
XLF Financials $51.58 2-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $48.76 $51.25 $53.87 -5.5%
126d $47.48 $50.48 $53.68 -7.9%
252d $49.13 $52.18 $55.42 -4.8%
504d $50.23 $55.40 $61.09 -2.6%
XLI Industrials $174.35 2-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $160.08 $169.99 $180.52 -8.2%
126d $165.70 $176.33 $187.64 -5.0%
252d $164.59 $173.32 $182.51 -5.6%
504d $157.03 $170.13 $184.33 -9.9%
XLB Materials $52.14 2-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $47.84 $50.92 $54.21 -8.3%
126d $49.58 $53.62 $57.99 -4.9%
252d $47.11 $51.15 $55.53 -9.6%
504d $42.47 $47.61 $53.36 -18.5%
XLE Energy $57.57 1-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $54.84 $58.70 $62.84 -4.7%
126d $56.50 $61.83 $67.66 -1.9%
252d $50.94 $56.99 $63.75 -11.5%
504d $42.34 $49.99 $59.01 -26.4%
XLK Technology $175.20 1-horizon strongest
HorizonLower bandCenterUpper bandDistance to lower
63d $145.22 $161.17 $178.88 -17.1%
126d $134.25 $149.82 $167.20 -23.4%
252d $139.36 $154.42 $171.10 -20.5%
504d $129.87 $149.49 $172.08 -25.9%

Support Confluence is a static read — it tells you where bands sit today. Combined with Sector RS (which sectors are leading vs. lagging) and the Closelook Pattern Engine, it sharpens the entry-zone question: if a leading sector pulls back, where would a multi-horizon support cluster catch it?