Pattern Lab · Methodology + live cohort
Pattern 03 — NVIDIA Strategic Authority Investment.
NVIDIA's corporate equity deployments are a leading indicator for the Rubin Build-Out rotation. Pattern 03 admits a public-equity name when NVIDIA discloses a corporate equity stake (Tier 1) or admits the company to a named NVIDIA architecture layer (Tier 3 — NVLink Fusion, Spectrum-X, DSX, AI-RAN, Vera/Rubin, BlueField, CUDA, Omniverse). Equal-weight, additive-only, hold until NVIDIA divests.
The rule
Add a name when NVIDIA discloses a corporate equity stake or warrants (Tier 1) or admits the company to a named NVIDIA architecture layer (Tier 3). Public companies only. NVentures venture-arm portfolio bets do not count. Private companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Mistral, Cohere, Wayve, Figure, Perplexity, Lambda, Reflection, Cursor) wait for IPO.
Equal-weight at entry. Each new admission rebalances the cohort to 1/(N+1). Top-ups by NVIDIA — additional capital into a name already in the cohort — do not trigger additional buys. The position is the position.
Hold until one of: (a) NVIDIA divests, with disappearance from a 13F or trim greater than 50% read as the trigger, (b) NVIDIA announces a contradicting partnership that displaces the original, or (c) the security delists. No stop-loss, no time-based exit, no technical override.
The four-tier signal hierarchy
Capital
NVIDIA buys common stock, receives warrants, or holds explicit share-purchase rights. 8-K + 13F disclosures. Hardest, most reliable signal. Triggers admission.
Binding demand
Multi-year purchase commitments, capacity-access rights, named AI-factory deployment partnerships. Very strong but tracked-only — typically rides in alongside Tier 1 events on the same 8-K.
Architecture integration
Partner admitted to a named NVIDIA architecture layer (NVLink Fusion, Spectrum-X, DSX, AI-RAN, Vera/Rubin, BlueField, CUDA, Omniverse). Triggers admission.
Language
Jensen names a constraint in keynote remarks, podcasts, or earnings calls without concrete commitment. Earliest, weakest. Ambient — never triggers entry.
Live cohort · 10 names
Current portfolio after applying the 16-event timeline through 2026-05-12.
- COHR
- CRWV
- GLW
- INTC
- IREN
- LITE
- MRVL
- NBIS
- NOK
- SNPS
Event timeline
Every admission, close, and skipped top-up. Tier 1 capital events followed by Tier 3 architecture admissions and 13F-driven exits.
| # | Date | Action | Ticker | Company | Size | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADD · Tier 1 | RXRX | Recursion Pharmaceuticals | $50M | $50M PIPE — strategic partnership co-developing AI drug-discovery foundation models on NVIDIA hardware. | |
| 2 | ADD · Tier 1 | ARM | Arm Holdings | $147M | NVIDIA anchor investor in the Arm IPO. ~$147M at the offer price after the Arm/NVIDIA acquisition deal collapsed in 2022. | |
| 3 | ADD · Tier 1 | APLD | Applied Digital | $160M | NVIDIA $160M direct equity investment + strategic AI-cloud GPU hosting partnership. First appeared in NVIDIA's Q3 2024 13F. | |
| 4 | ADD · Tier 1 | NBIS | Nebius Group | — | NVIDIA participation in Nebius's December 2024 PIPE — strategic equity in the AI-cloud build-out. Nebius re-listed on Nasdaq 2024-10-21 after the Yandex split. Appeared in NVIDIA's Q4 2024 13F. | |
| 5 | ADD · Tier 3 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | — | Marvell named as a launch partner for NVLink Fusion at GTC Spring 2025 — custom-silicon + electro-optics partner integrated into NVIDIA's named scale-up architecture. Tier-3 architecture-integration event: no direct NVIDIA equity stake in MRVL, but admission to the named layer signals binding multi-year demand. Stock broke out of a $75-95 range to $170+ during the year following. | |
| 6 | ADD · Tier 1 | CRWV | CoreWeave | — | NVIDIA was a pre-IPO Series A+ investor since April 2023 ($221M round) and IPO anchor. Listed on Nasdaq 2025-03-28. First appeared in NVIDIA's Q1 2025 13F. | |
| 7 | CLOSE | RXRX | RXRX | — | RXRX disappeared from NVIDIA's Q2 2025 13F (filed 2025-08-14). NVIDIA had held the PIPE position from Q4 2023 through Q1 2025. Treated as full exit — recovery would require a new disclosed re-entry in a future 13F or 8-K. | |
| 8 | ADD · Tier 1 | INTC | Intel | $5.00B | $5B equity investment at $23.28/share (~215M shares) + product partnership for joint x86 / RTX / data-center products. The biggest single corporate equity check NVIDIA has written. | |
| 9 | ADD · Tier 1 | NOK | Nokia | $1.00B | $1B equity via 166,389,351 newly-issued shares (~2.90% stake) + strategic partnership: AI networking, 5G/6G RAN on NVIDIA architecture, data-center networking. | |
| 10 | ADD · Tier 1 | SNPS | Synopsys | $2.00B | $2B equity investment at $414.79/share + strategic partnership: EDA / chip design with AI and accelerated computing. Deepens the prior Synopsys.ai partnership announced at GTC 2023. | |
| 11 | CLOSE | APLD | APLD | — | APLD disappeared from NVIDIA's Q4 2025 13F (filed 2026-02-17). NVIDIA had held the position from Q3 2024 through Q3 2025. Per the published Closelook Weekly Signal 2026-05-10: a model Pattern 03 exit and the example used to justify having an Exit Risk tier in the scanner. | |
| 12 | CLOSE | ARM | ARM | — | ARM disappeared from NVIDIA's Q4 2025 13F (filed 2026-02-17). NVIDIA had been the IPO anchor since 2023-09-14 and ARM appeared in every quarterly 13F through Q3 2025. Treated as full exit. | |
| 13 | ADD · Tier 1 | COHR | Coherent | $2.00B | $2B strategic investment + co-development of optical interconnects + packaging for next-generation data-center architecture. Companion bet to Lumentum on the same announcement day. | |
| 14 | ADD · Tier 1 | LITE | Lumentum | $2.00B | $2B strategic investment + capacity-rights agreement for optics / photonics in AI factories. Co-funds a new US fab. Locks in supply for the next-generation data-center bandwidth bottleneck. | |
| 15 | ADD · Tier 1 | IREN | Iris Energy / IREN | $2.10B | Strategic partnership + share-purchase rights for up to 30M IREN shares at $70 (= up to $2.1B). Targets up to 5GW of AI infrastructure / AI factories. | |
| 16 | ADD · Tier 1 | GLW | Corning | $500M | $500M pre-funded for 3M Corning shares at essentially zero cost + warrants for 15M additional shares at a $180 strike — total potential commitment up to $3.2B. Multi-year optical infrastructure partnership; the warrant strike marks the price NVIDIA expects GLW to reach. |
Skipped top-ups (1) — additive-only rule
| Date | Ticker | Size of top-up | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | CRWV | $2.00B | Top-up — additive-only rule skips re-buys. |
Forward calendar · next 10 events
Tier 1 events drive most Pattern 03 admissions historically. Tier 3 13F-filing deadlines drive exits.
| In | Date | Tier | Event | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +3d | 2026-05-15 | T3 | Q1 2026 13F filing deadline · SEC EDGAR | Tells us whether Lumentum, Coherent, Marvell, Corning, or IREN show up on paper, and how the existing five Q4 2025 holdings (CRWV, INTC, NBIS, NOK, SNPS) moved quarter-over-quarter. The single highest-information event between now and NVIDIA earnings on May 20. |
| +8d | 2026-05-20 | T1 | NVIDIA Q1 FY27 earnings — after market close · NVIDIA investor relations webcast | First scheduled Tier-1 Jensen-speaks event since the Corning deal. Watch for: (1) capacity commentary on optics specifically (LITE/COHR/GLW context), (2) the $1T order book remark Jensen made at GTC on Mar 18 — does it grow? (3) any new partner names in prepared remarks or Q&A. |
| +20d | 2026-06-01 | T1 | GTC Taipei keynote — Jensen · Taipei | NVIDIA pre-billing the 'Five-Layer Cake from energy to applications' — a phrase that is itself a bottleneck taxonomy. Expect on-stage references to optics partners (LITE/COHR/MRVL/GLW) and grid/power partners (IREN). |
| +21d | 2026-06-02 → 2026-06-05 | T1 | Computex 2026 · Taipei | Historically the densest cluster of Tier-1 partner announcements on the calendar. Past Computex events delivered the 'iPhone moment of AI' (2023) and the Rubin roadmap reveal (2024). |
| +89d | 2026-08-09 → 2026-08-13 | T2 | SIGGRAPH 2026 · TBD — typically rotating US city | Graphics and Omniverse focus. Jensen has keynoted SIGGRAPH multiple years; not always but often. Tier-2 event — schedule attention but don't bank on it. |
| +94d | 2026-08-14 | T3 | Q2 2026 13F filing deadline · SEC EDGAR | First 13F after the May 6 Corning deal disclosure. Confirms whether GLW, IREN, LITE, COHR are visible on paper and at what mark. |
| +103d | 2026-08-23 → 2026-08-26 | T2 | Hot Chips 2026 · Stanford / online | Silicon-detail conference. Architectural reveals from NVIDIA + partners (typically including Marvell, Broadcom, Intel, AMD). High-information signal for Architects & Interconnect cohort moves. |
| +106d | 2026-08-26 | T1 | NVIDIA Q2 FY27 earnings (estimated, AMC) · NVIDIA investor relations webcast | Date estimated from prior-year cadence (last Wed of August). NVIDIA confirms ~6 weeks ahead. Q2 typically the biggest earnings reaction of the year — the result the calendar year hinges on. |
| +119d | 2026-09-08 → 2026-09-11 | T2 | Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology · San Francisco | NVIDIA typically presents; named partners (CRWV, NBIS, SNPS, etc.) usually attend. Sell-side Q&A surface — analyst-revision driver more than capital-news driver. |
| +186d | 2026-11-14 | T3 | Q3 2026 13F filing deadline · SEC EDGAR | Position-update read. Also: monitor for any closes — exit risk on the existing cohort. |
Hypothetical portfolio · $100k per signal
Assumes a diary follower would have allocated $100.000
to each of the 13 Pattern 03 signals at the disclosure-day market price,
held additively, and sold the three names (RXRX, APLD, ARM) on their respective
13F-disappearance dates. Valuation date for the 10 held names is 2026-05-08
(the Weekly Signal close). Money-weighted annualized return uses XIRR
— the same formula as Excel =XIRR(values, dates).
| # | Ticker | Entry date | Entry $ | Shares | End date | End $ | End value | Return | × | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RXRX | 2023-07-12 | $12.08 | 8278 | 2025-08-14 | $5.64 | $46.689 | -53.3% | 0.47× | EXITED |
| 2 | ARM | 2023-09-14 | $63.59 | 1573 | 2026-02-17 | $126.89 | $199.544 | +99.5% | 2.00× | EXITED |
| 3 | APLD | 2024-09-05 | $5.37 | 18622 | 2026-02-17 | $33.56 | $624.953 | +525.0% | 6.25× | EXITED |
| 4 | NBIS | 2024-12-02 | $25.75 | 3883 | 2026-05-08 | $177.05 | $687.573 | +587.6% | 6.88× | HELD |
| 5 | MRVL | 2025-03-17 | $70.40 | 1420 | 2026-05-08 | $170.13 | $241.662 | +141.7% | 2.42× | HELD |
| 6 | CRWV | 2025-03-28 | $40.00 | 2500 | 2026-05-08 | $114.15 | $285.375 | +185.4% | 2.85× | HELD |
| 7 | INTC | 2025-09-18 | $30.57 | 3271 | 2026-05-08 | $124.92 | $408.636 | +308.6% | 4.09× | HELD |
| 8 | NOK | 2025-10-28 | $7.77 | 12870 | 2026-05-08 | $12.82 | $164.994 | +65.0% | 1.65× | HELD |
| 9 | SNPS | 2025-12-01 | $438.29 | 228 | 2026-05-08 | $516.48 | $117.840 | +17.8% | 1.18× | HELD |
| 10 | COHR | 2026-03-15 | $247.37 | 404 | 2026-05-08 | $335.26 | $135.530 | +35.5% | 1.36× | HELD |
| 11 | LITE | 2026-03-15 | $624.84 | 160 | 2026-05-08 | $903.80 | $144.645 | +44.6% | 1.45× | HELD |
| 12 | IREN | 2026-05-01 | $45.66 | 2190 | 2026-05-08 | $61.20 | $134.034 | +34.0% | 1.34× | HELD |
| 13 | GLW | 2026-05-06 | $181.57 | 551 | 2026-05-08 | $186.94 | $102.958 | +3.0% | 1.03× | HELD |
All prices are EODHD-verified historical closes — entry-day close on the disclosure date
(or the first trading day on/after), exit-day close on the 13F filing date, and 2026-05-08
for held positions. Source data: workers/jensen-backtest/data/pattern-03-prices.json.
Refresh via workers/jensen-backtest/scripts/fetch-real-prices.mjs.
XIRR is sensitive to entry / exit prices, not just to the holding period. This is a measurement, not advice.
Cash-flow stream (17 rows — what XIRR is consuming)
| Date | Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-12 | $-100.000 | Buy RXRX |
| 2025-08-14 | $46.689 | Sell RXRX |
| 2023-09-14 | $-100.000 | Buy ARM |
| 2026-02-17 | $199.544 | Sell ARM |
| 2024-09-05 | $-100.000 | Buy APLD |
| 2026-02-17 | $624.953 | Sell APLD |
| 2024-12-02 | $-100.000 | Buy NBIS |
| 2025-03-17 | $-100.000 | Buy MRVL |
| 2025-03-28 | $-100.000 | Buy CRWV |
| 2025-09-18 | $-100.000 | Buy INTC |
| 2025-10-28 | $-100.000 | Buy NOK |
| 2025-12-01 | $-100.000 | Buy SNPS |
| 2026-03-15 | $-100.000 | Buy COHR |
| 2026-03-15 | $-100.000 | Buy LITE |
| 2026-05-01 | $-100.000 | Buy IREN |
| 2026-05-06 | $-100.000 | Buy GLW |
| 2026-05-08 | $2.423.246 | Mark-to-market held cohort |
Pattern 03 is a measurement, not advice. It reads NVIDIA's published capital allocation. The popular meme captures the gap-up. Pattern 03 captures what comes after.
Read the full Lab Read dossier → · Origin Weekly Signal → · Back to Pattern Lab