Pattern Lab · Methodology + live cohort
Pattern 03 — NVIDIA Strategic Authority Investment.
NVIDIA's corporate equity deployments are a leading indicator for the Rubin Build-Out rotation. Pattern 03 admits a public-equity name when NVIDIA discloses a corporate equity stake (Tier 1) or admits the company to a named NVIDIA architecture layer (Tier 3 — NVLink Fusion, Spectrum-X, DSX, AI-RAN, Vera/Rubin, BlueField, CUDA, Omniverse). Equal-weight, additive-only, hold until NVIDIA divests.
The rule
Add a name when NVIDIA discloses a corporate equity stake or warrants (Tier 1) or admits the company to a named NVIDIA architecture layer (Tier 3). Public companies only. NVentures venture-arm portfolio bets do not count. Private companies (OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI, Mistral, Cohere, Wayve, Figure, Perplexity, Lambda, Reflection, Cursor) wait for IPO.
Equal-weight at entry. Each new admission rebalances the cohort to 1/(N+1). Top-ups by NVIDIA — additional capital into a name already in the cohort — do not trigger additional buys. The position is the position.
Hold until one of: (a) NVIDIA divests, with disappearance from a 13F or trim greater than 50% read as the trigger, (b) NVIDIA announces a contradicting partnership that displaces the original, or (c) the security delists. No stop-loss, no time-based exit, no technical override.
The four-tier signal hierarchy
Capital
NVIDIA buys common stock, receives warrants, or holds explicit share-purchase rights. 8-K + 13F disclosures. Hardest, most reliable signal. Triggers admission.
Binding demand
Multi-year purchase commitments, capacity-access rights, named AI-factory deployment partnerships. Very strong but tracked-only — typically rides in alongside Tier 1 events on the same 8-K.
Architecture integration
Partner admitted to a named NVIDIA architecture layer (NVLink Fusion, Spectrum-X, DSX, AI-RAN, Vera/Rubin, BlueField, CUDA, Omniverse). Triggers admission.
Language
Jensen names a constraint in keynote remarks, podcasts, or earnings calls without concrete commitment. Earliest, weakest. Ambient — never triggers entry.
Live cohort · 10 names
Current portfolio after applying the 16-event timeline through 2026-10-02.
- COHR
- CRWV
- GLW
- INTC
- IREN
- LITE
- MRVL
- NBIS
- NOK
- SNPS
Event timeline
Every admission, close, and skipped top-up. Tier 1 capital events followed by Tier 3 architecture admissions and 13F-driven exits.
| # | Date | Action | Ticker | Company | Size | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ADD · Tier 1 | RXRX | Recursion Pharmaceuticals | $50M | $50M PIPE — strategic partnership co-developing AI drug-discovery foundation models on NVIDIA hardware. | |
| 2 | ADD · Tier 1 | ARM | Arm Holdings | $147M | NVIDIA anchor investor in the Arm IPO. ~$147M at the offer price after the Arm/NVIDIA acquisition deal collapsed in 2022. | |
| 3 | ADD · Tier 1 | APLD | Applied Digital | $160M | NVIDIA $160M direct equity investment + strategic AI-cloud GPU hosting partnership. First appeared in NVIDIA's Q3 2024 13F. | |
| 4 | ADD · Tier 1 | NBIS | Nebius Group | — | NVIDIA participation in Nebius's December 2024 PIPE — strategic equity in the AI-cloud build-out. Nebius re-listed on Nasdaq 2024-10-21 after the Yandex split. Appeared in NVIDIA's Q4 2024 13F. | |
| 5 | ADD · Tier 3 | MRVL | Marvell Technology | — | Marvell named as a launch partner for NVLink Fusion at GTC Spring 2025 — custom-silicon + electro-optics partner integrated into NVIDIA's named scale-up architecture. Tier-3 architecture-integration event: no direct NVIDIA equity stake in MRVL, but admission to the named layer signals binding multi-year demand. Stock broke out of a $75-95 range to $170+ during the year following. | |
| 6 | ADD · Tier 1 | CRWV | CoreWeave | — | NVIDIA was a pre-IPO Series A+ investor since April 2023 ($221M round) and IPO anchor. Listed on Nasdaq 2025-03-28. First appeared in NVIDIA's Q1 2025 13F. | |
| 7 | CLOSE | RXRX | RXRX | — | RXRX disappeared from NVIDIA's Q2 2025 13F (filed 2025-08-14). NVIDIA had held the PIPE position from Q4 2023 through Q1 2025. Treated as full exit — recovery would require a new disclosed re-entry in a future 13F or 8-K. | |
| 8 | ADD · Tier 1 | INTC | Intel | $5.00B | $5B equity investment at $23.28/share (~215M shares) + product partnership for joint x86 / RTX / data-center products. The biggest single corporate equity check NVIDIA has written. | |
| 9 | ADD · Tier 1 | NOK | Nokia | $1.00B | $1B equity via 166,389,351 newly-issued shares (~2.90% stake) + strategic partnership: AI networking, 5G/6G RAN on NVIDIA architecture, data-center networking. | |
| 10 | ADD · Tier 1 | SNPS | Synopsys | $2.00B | $2B equity investment at $414.79/share + strategic partnership: EDA / chip design with AI and accelerated computing. Deepens the prior Synopsys.ai partnership announced at GTC 2023. | |
| 11 | CLOSE | APLD | APLD | — | APLD disappeared from NVIDIA's Q4 2025 13F (filed 2026-02-17). NVIDIA had held the position from Q3 2024 through Q3 2025. Per the published Closelook Weekly Signal 2026-05-10: a model Pattern 03 exit and the example used to justify having an Exit Risk tier in the scanner. | |
| 12 | CLOSE | ARM | ARM | — | ARM disappeared from NVIDIA's Q4 2025 13F (filed 2026-02-17). NVIDIA had been the IPO anchor since 2023-09-14 and ARM appeared in every quarterly 13F through Q3 2025. Treated as full exit. | |
| 13 | ADD · Tier 1 | COHR | Coherent | $2.00B | $2B strategic investment + co-development of optical interconnects + packaging for next-generation data-center architecture. Companion bet to Lumentum on the same announcement day. | |
| 14 | ADD · Tier 1 | LITE | Lumentum | $2.00B | $2B strategic investment + capacity-rights agreement for optics / photonics in AI factories. Co-funds a new US fab. Locks in supply for the next-generation data-center bandwidth bottleneck. | |
| 15 | ADD · Tier 1 | IREN | Iris Energy / IREN | $2.10B | Strategic partnership + share-purchase rights for up to 30M IREN shares at $70 (= up to $2.1B). Targets up to 5GW of AI infrastructure / AI factories. | |
| 16 | ADD · Tier 1 | GLW | Corning | $500M | $500M pre-funded for 3M Corning shares at essentially zero cost + warrants for 15M additional shares at a $180 strike — total potential commitment up to $3.2B. Multi-year optical infrastructure partnership; the warrant strike marks the price NVIDIA expects GLW to reach. |
Skipped top-ups (1) — additive-only rule
| Date | Ticker | Size of top-up | Note |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-13 | CRWV | $2.00B | Top-up — additive-only rule skips re-buys. |
Forward calendar · next 7 events
Tier 1 events drive most Pattern 03 admissions historically. Tier 3 13F-filing deadlines drive exits.
| In | Date | Tier | Event | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| +43d | 2026-11-14 | T3 | Q3 2026 13F filing deadline · SEC EDGAR | Position-update read. Also: monitor for any closes — exit risk on the existing cohort. |
| +44d | 2026-11-15 → 2026-11-20 | T2 | SC26 — Supercomputing 2026 · St. Louis | HPC + cluster-scaling focus. Jensen has keynoted in past years; named-partner announcements (CRWV, NBIS, IREN — AI factory cohort) commonly land here. |
| +47d | 2026-11-18 | T1 | NVIDIA Q3 FY27 earnings (estimated, AMC) · NVIDIA investor relations webcast | Date estimated. Often the Q3 earnings report includes detail on whether 2027 capex commitments from hyperscaler partners are tracking. |
| +96d | 2027-01-06 → 2027-01-09 | T1 | CES 2027 — Jensen keynote · Las Vegas | Jensen has keynoted CES the last three years. Typical 'special address' format with broad-theme reveals (Cosmos AI 2025, Physical AI 2026 cadence). |
| +136d | 2027-02-15 | T3 | Q4 2026 13F filing deadline · SEC EDGAR | Annual look at NVIDIA's full-year position roll. Highest-likelihood window for exits (year-end book-keeping). |
| +145d | 2027-02-24 | T1 | NVIDIA Q4 FY27 earnings + full-year guide (estimated) · NVIDIA investor relations webcast | Date estimated. NVIDIA gives full-year FY28 guidance at Q4 print — the single most price-moving Tier 1 event of the year. |
| +165d | 2027-03-16 → 2027-03-20 | T1 | GTC Spring 2027 — Jensen keynote · San Jose | Date estimated from prior-year cadence (mid-late March). Major product reveals (Vera Rubin successor likely) + partner-mention concentration. |
Hypothetical portfolio · $100k per signal
Assumes a diary follower would have allocated $100,000
to each of the 13 Pattern 03 signals at the disclosure-day market price,
held additively, and sold the three names (RXRX, APLD, ARM) on their respective
13F-disappearance dates. Valuation date for the 10 held names is 2026-10-01
(the Weekly Signal close). Money-weighted annualized return uses XIRR
— the same formula as Excel =XIRR(values, dates).
| # | Ticker | Entry date | Entry $ | Shares | End date | End $ | End value | Return | × | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | RXRX | 2023-07-12 | $12.08 | 8278 | 2025-08-14 | $5.64 | $46,689 | -53.3% | 0.47× | EXITED |
| 2 | ARM | 2023-09-14 | $63.59 | 1573 | 2026-02-17 | $126.89 | $199,544 | +99.5% | 2.00× | EXITED |
| 3 | APLD | 2024-09-05 | $5.37 | 18622 | 2026-02-17 | $33.56 | $624,953 | +525.0% | 6.25× | EXITED |
| 4 | NBIS | 2024-12-02 | $25.75 | 3883 | 2026-10-01 | $232.28 | $902,058 | +802.1% | 9.02× | HELD |
| 5 | MRVL | 2025-03-17 | $70.40 | 1420 | 2026-10-01 | $268.08 | $380,795 | +280.8% | 3.81× | HELD |
| 6 | CRWV | 2025-03-28 | $40.00 | 2500 | 2026-10-01 | $88.57 | $221,425 | +121.4% | 2.21× | HELD |
| 7 | INTC | 2025-09-18 | $30.57 | 3271 | 2026-10-01 | $120.00 | $392,542 | +292.5% | 3.93× | HELD |
| 8 | NOK | 2025-10-28 | $7.77 | 12870 | 2026-10-01 | $10.37 | $133,462 | +33.5% | 1.33× | HELD |
| 9 | SNPS | 2025-12-01 | $438.29 | 228 | 2026-10-01 | $490.54 | $111,921 | +11.9% | 1.12× | HELD |
| 10 | COHR | 2026-03-15 | $247.37 | 404 | 2026-10-01 | $319.19 | $129,033 | +29.0% | 1.29× | HELD |
| 11 | LITE | 2026-03-15 | $624.84 | 160 | 2026-10-01 | $1045.78 | $167,368 | +67.4% | 1.67× | HELD |
| 12 | IREN | 2026-05-01 | $45.66 | 2190 | 2026-10-01 | $40.65 | $89,028 | -11.0% | 0.89× | HELD |
| 13 | GLW | 2026-05-06 | $181.57 | 551 | 2026-10-01 | $160.42 | $88,352 | -11.6% | 0.88× | HELD |
All prices are EODHD-verified historical closes — entry-day close on the disclosure date
(or the first trading day on/after), exit-day close on the 13F filing date, and 2026-10-01
for held positions. Source data: workers/jensen-backtest/data/pattern-03-prices.json,
refreshed nightly. XIRR is sensitive to entry / exit prices, not just to the holding period.
This is a measurement, not advice.
Cash-flow stream (17 rows — what XIRR is consuming)
| Date | Amount | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-12 | $-100,000 | Buy RXRX |
| 2025-08-14 | $46,689 | Sell RXRX |
| 2023-09-14 | $-100,000 | Buy ARM |
| 2026-02-17 | $199,544 | Sell ARM |
| 2024-09-05 | $-100,000 | Buy APLD |
| 2026-02-17 | $624,953 | Sell APLD |
| 2024-12-02 | $-100,000 | Buy NBIS |
| 2025-03-17 | $-100,000 | Buy MRVL |
| 2025-03-28 | $-100,000 | Buy CRWV |
| 2025-09-18 | $-100,000 | Buy INTC |
| 2025-10-28 | $-100,000 | Buy NOK |
| 2025-12-01 | $-100,000 | Buy SNPS |
| 2026-03-15 | $-100,000 | Buy COHR |
| 2026-03-15 | $-100,000 | Buy LITE |
| 2026-05-01 | $-100,000 | Buy IREN |
| 2026-05-06 | $-100,000 | Buy GLW |
| 2026-10-01 | $2,615,984 | Mark-to-market held cohort |
Pattern 03 is a measurement, not advice. It reads NVIDIA's published capital allocation. The popular meme captures the gap-up. Pattern 03 captures what comes after.
FAQ · from the current data · as of 2026-10-01
Quick answers
How many companies are in the Pattern 03 live cohort?
As of 2026-10-02, the Pattern 03 cohort holds 10 names after 13 admissions and 3 closes (plus 1 top-ups skipped under the additive-only rule): COHR, CRWV, GLW, INTC, IREN, LITE, MRVL, NBIS, NOK, SNPS.
What triggers a Pattern 03 admission?
A public-equity name is admitted when NVIDIA discloses a corporate equity stake or warrants (Tier 1) or the company is admitted to a named NVIDIA architecture layer such as NVLink Fusion, Spectrum-X, DSX, AI-RAN, Vera/Rubin, BlueField, CUDA, or Omniverse (Tier 3). Positions are equal-weight at entry and held additively until NVIDIA divests.
What is the hypothetical Pattern 03 portfolio return?
Valued as of 2026-10-01, a hypothetical $100,000-per-signal allocation across the 13 Pattern 03 signals shows a gross return of +168.2% and a money-weighted (XIRR) annualized return of +93.1%.
What is the next event on the Pattern 03 forward calendar?
As of 2026-10-02, the next tracked event is "Q3 2026 13F filing deadline" on 2026-11-14 (Tier 3, SEC EDGAR).