Daily Pulse · · 08:30 NY · signal
Friday flips broadly risk-off — Korea −6.1%, Temperature still 57
Risk-on rally — composite vs. tape gap
Index moves
| Index | 1D | 1W |
|---|---|---|
| Rubin 100 | -3.29% | -1.60% |
| HALO 100 | -1.29% | -1.83% |
| Euro-AI 50 | -2.25% | -1.11% |
| AW25 | — | -1.21% |
Pattern alerts
- PFE support-confluence NEUTRAL
- NOC support-confluence WARNING
- MCD support-confluence WARNING
- AZN support-confluence WARNING
- UL support-confluence WARNING
Cointegration
0 active pairs, 6 breaks.
§1 — Headline & lede
🟡 Mixed read. Temperature 57 stays in the transition zone while cross-asset, regions and four-of-four reference baskets all sell together on Friday's close.
§2 — Cross-asset regime
Gold $417.29 −2.32% · Bitcoin $79,066 −2.45% · TLT $83.66 −1.48%
All three risk-cycle proxies sold off in lockstep — no haven catching a bid. The pattern reads as broad de-risking rather than rotation: gold and bonds did not absorb what equities released.
§3 — Risk & dollar
DXY n/a · VIX 18.43 +6.78%
VIX bid through 18 on the close — the first sub-19 print to lift back this week. Dollar reading not bundled in today's snapshot.
§4 — Asia overnight
Nikkei −1.98% · Hang Seng −1.62% · Shanghai n/a · KOSPI −6.12%
Korea cracked: KS11 dropped 6.1% on the day after sitting on a strong week through Thursday — exactly the late-run-leadership unwind pattern the Memory cycle had been riding via Samsung / SK hynix. Nikkei and Hang Seng moved in the same direction at a third of the magnitude.
§5 — US yesterday
SPX (SPY) 739.17 · d −1.20% · w +0.21% · m +5.61%
NDX (QQQ) 708.93 · d −1.51% · w −0.32% · m +11.22%
DJI (DIA) 495.37 · d −1.08% · w −0.15% · m +2.20%
RUT (IWM) 277.60 · d −2.41% · w −2.31% · m +3.05%
Russells worst on the day. NDX still leads the month at +11.2% — that's where the give-back has the most room. The day's relative ranking (RUT < QQQ < SPY < DIA) is the textbook risk-off shape.
§6 — S&P 500 sectors
Top-3: XLE +2.36% · XLF −0.37% · XLP −0.40%
Bottom-3: XLB −2.65% · XLU −2.29% · XLK −1.81%
Energy alone bid. Defensives + tech both rejected — no rotation winner outside XLE. Materials and Utilities at the bottom on the same day is the unusual print: cyclical and defensive both sold.
§7 — Europe today
DAX −2.07% · CAC −1.61% (Friday close; Monday open not bundled)
§8 — Reference portfolios
| Index | Day | Week | Month | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin 100 | −3.29% | −1.60% | +21.39% | Infrastructure leg gives back; +21% MTD intact |
| HALO 100 | −1.29% | −1.83% | −3.90% | Healthcare-tech underperformance entrenches |
| Euro-AI 50 | −2.25% | −1.11% | +4.72% | European semis follow US down |
| AW25 | — | −1.21% | +12.05% | Agentic basket holds the monthly lead |
Two-axis dispersion still defines the basket layer — Rubin and AW25 hold double-digit monthly leads while HALO sits in drawdown. Friday compressed the day but did not flip the monthly hierarchy.
§9 — Generation phase
Layer-deltas not bundled in today's snapshot.
Rubin sub-sector readings will resume in tomorrow's pulse. Last full read (May 15 close): Memory + Interconnects led the month; Wafer Processing lagged.
§10 — Money Temperature
Composite 57 🟡 · Label Risk-on rally · Instruments 8 of 10 contributing
The composite leans risk-on but the underlying tape rejects the reading. The gap between Temperature 57 and Friday's broad-down session is the central tension in today's data — gauges aggregate across instruments that lag fast price moves, so the composite has not yet acknowledged the rotation.
§11 — Pattern Scanner
Active 25 signals · Top-5 regime mix: 🟢 0 · 🟡 2 · 🔴 3
PFE 47 🟡 support-confluence · NOC 38 🔴 support-confluence · MCD 37 🔴 support-confluence · AZN 36 🟡 support-confluence · UL 29 🔴 support-confluence
All five top setups are support-confluence — no breakouts in the leader board. Three of five flag red regime, which historically reads as price testing support in a deteriorating tape rather than a clean entry environment.
§12 — Cointegration Lab
Active pairs 0 · Breaks 6 · Cascade state dispersed
Six pair breaks with zero active pairs is the rare configuration — historical spread relationships have detached and not yet reformed. Sustained for a third session, this reads as a correlation-regime reset rather than a passing dislocation.
§13 — Cross-read
The dominant tension is the composite vs. tape gap. Temperature still reads 57 risk-on while every cross-asset closed down, Korea broke 6%, and the only S&P sector bid was Energy — the lowest-YTD-beta sleeve in the basket. Read together with six cointegration breaks and zero active pairs, the structure is a positioning unwind in the late-run leaders (Memory / Interconnects via Korea, Rubin via −3.3%) into the one corner of the tape that did not participate in the year-to-date run. The composite has not yet acknowledged the rotation because gauges aggregate instruments that lag fast price. Two sessions of confirmation would move the read from "narrow risk-off Friday" to "correlation regime resetting."
§14 — Watch next session
- KOSPI: hold above 7,400 after the −6.1% break, or extend toward 7,200 — the level that defined the early-May launch base.
- XLE: follow-through above $60.00 confirms an energy-bid rotation; failure back below $58.50 reads as Friday's bid was short-cover only.
- Cointegration count: 0 active pairs reforming inside two sessions = correlation regime resetting; static 6-and-0 for a third session reads as deeper structural decouple.