Weekly Signal Composite: How Closelook Reads Market Regime

Seven Levels

The analysis flows top-down through seven levels, each building on the previous:

• Level 1 — Regime: Are we in a bull, bear, or transitional environment? Determined by long-term trend and structural indicators.
• Level 2 — Trend: What is the intermediate-term direction? Moving averages, momentum, higher highs/lows.
• Level 3 — Health: How broad is participation? Are leaders leading? Is there internal divergence?
• Level 4 — Context: Macro backdrop, Fed policy, DXY, credit conditions.
• Level 5 — Timing: Are we at a decision point? Confluence of support/resistance, time cycles, sentiment extremes.
• Level 6 — Decision: What's the actionable signal? Risk-on, risk-off, or wait.
• Level 7 — Risk: What invalidates the thesis? Stop-loss levels, maximum drawdown tolerance.

Nine Dimensions (Quantitative Scoring)

The first three levels (Regime, Trend, Health) are scored quantitatively across nine dimensions, each with a specific weight reflecting its predictive importance. Macro (20%) and Liquidity (15%) dominate because they drive the environment in which all assets trade. Trend and Participation (15% each) capture direction and breadth. Breadth, Volatility, and Sentiment (10% each) are confirming dimensions. Momentum (5%) is the weakest standalone signal but valuable as confirmation.

The composite score is the weighted average of all nine dimensions, scaled 0-100. This is not a black-box model — every dimension's score and reasoning is published transparently in each Weekly Signal issue.

Asset-Specific Adjustments

Different assets use different volatility indicators: BTC uses DVOL and BVIV (crypto-specific), while equities use VIX. Elliott Wave analysis is applied as a qualitative overlay on BTC and NDX for pattern recognition and target projection.