The single most important factor in portfolio performance is not which stocks you own — it's whether you're positioned correctly for the market environment. Being 100% long high-beta AI stocks in a Green regime is the right move. Being 100% long the same stocks in a Red regime is how you lose 30% in three months.
The Weekly Signal composite score quantifies this. It takes the subjective question "how does the market feel?" and replaces it with a weighted, transparent, reproducible number derived from nine quantitative dimensions.
Green (80+): Full allocation. Maximum exposure to high-conviction positions. Minimal hedging. This is the environment where the AI Barbell runs at full tilt — long infrastructure, short disrupted SaaS.
Yellow (50-79): Reduced allocation. Trim positions by 20-30%. Add puts on vulnerable positions. Tighten stops. This is not a sell-everything signal — it's a "lean defensive" signal.
Red (0-49): Capital preservation mode. Raise cash to 40-60%. Close high-beta longs. Shift to Gold, TLT, and defensive positioning. This is where the Derivatives portfolio (cash-secured puts, covered calls) becomes the primary income vehicle.
The regime score is published every week in the Weekly Signal. The most recent issue (v27, March 3, 2026) scored 38/100 — deep Red, signaling Regime Change. This triggered a shift toward Gold and TLT exposure and reduced equity allocation.
Weekly Signal — Current Regime →Latest Signal: 38/100 Red →How Portfolios Respond to Regime →
