Bitcoin Weekly Signal — Feb 24, 2026

80–100 Bullish

50–79 Transitional

0–49 Bearish

Quantitative Dimensions

Levels 1–3 + Level 5 — Numerically scored, weighted composite

Macro Regime

Price vs 200WMA · slope direction

20%

Liquidity

Real rates · Global M2 · DXY

15%

Trend

SuperTrend weekly

15%

Participation

A/D line · on-chain exchange flows

15%

Breadth

BTC.D · altcoin breadth · % above 200DMA

10%

Volatility

DVOL / BVIV · term structure

10%

Sentiment

Fear & Greed · funding rates · CME COT

10%

Momentum

Stochastic(14,3,3) · RSI

BTC/USD — Monthly · Elliott Wave Count + Fibonacci Retracements

TradingView · 1M · Bitstamp

BTC Monthly Chart — Elliott Wave count with Fibonacci retracements

Dimension Breakdown

D1 · 20%

Macro Regime

Price vs 200WMAWell below — $68K vs 200WMA at $97.3K

200WMA SlopeFlattening

Deviation−30% below 200WMA

Price has fallen significantly below the 200WMA ($97.3K) — a clear macro bear signal. The deviation is extreme but 200WMA slope hasn't turned down yet, which means the long-term trend hasn't fully reversed. Watch the slope.

D2 · 15%

Liquidity

US 10Y Real Rate+2.1% — headwind

Global M2 (YoY)+4.2% expanding

DXY97.82 — weak, below 100

Two of three indicators bullish. Global M2 expanding and dollar weak (DXY below 100) — both tailwinds for risk assets and crypto. US real rates remain the headwind. Historically, DXY below 100 has coincided with BTC strength — a notable divergence from the current price decline.

D3 · 15%

Trend

SuperTrend (7,3)SELL at $80,737

DirectionLower highs, lower lows

Price vs ST$68K — 16% below trigger

Weekly SuperTrend flipped to sell at $80,737. Price now 16% below the trigger — deep into sell territory. Not a marginal signal — this is a confirmed, sustained breakdown.

D4 · 15%

Participation

A/D LineDeclining — distribution

Exchange FlowsNet inflows (sell pressure)

Volume ProfileDeclining volume on bounces

Consistent distribution. Exchange inflows = holders moving to exchanges (bearish on-chain). Rallies on declining volume indicate low conviction buying.

D5 · 10%

Breadth

BTC Dominance58.2% — rising

Altcoin BreadthWeak — broad decline

BTC dominance rising while altcoins bleed — classic risk-off rotation within crypto. BTC as "safe haven" in the space. Less bearish for BTC specifically than for broader market.

D6 · 10%

Volatility

DVOL (Deribit)62 — elevated

BVIVContango (normal)

Term StructureNo inversion

Elevated IV but normal term structure (contango). No panic or capitulation — "orderly selling." Lack of DVOL spike suggests bottom is not in yet.

D7 · 10%

Sentiment

Fear & Greed Index22 — Extreme Fear

Funding RatesSlightly negative

CME COTSpecs net short

Deep fear. Contrarian signal — but fear persists for months in bear markets. Negative funding + CME specs net short confirms institutional directional conviction. Watch for <10 as capitulation marker.

D9 · 5%

Momentum

Stochastic(14,3,3)27.3 / 25.0 — oversold

RSI (14)32.7 — approaching oversold

MACD WeeklyBearish — below signal

Deeply oversold on multiple timeframes. Doesn't mean "buy" — oversold stays oversold in bear regimes. Countertrend bounce possible but requires confirmation from D1 and D3.

BTC/USD — Weekly · 200WMA + SuperTrend + Stochastic + Coppock + RSI

Barchart Premier · Weekly

BTC Weekly Chart — 200WMA, SuperTrend, Stochastic, Coppock Curve, RSI

Qualitative Analysis

Levels 4, 6, 7 — Structure, Decision, Risk

Level 4 · Structure

Channels, Fibs & EW Overlay

Ascending channel from 2023 low broken. Price testing the lower channel boundary from below as resistance.

50% Fib retracement: ~$74K — broken
61.8% Fib: ~$61K — next major support
Channel lower bound: ~$60K–$61K (Fib confluence)
78.6% Fib: ~$41K — if 61.8% fails

Level 6 · Decision

Playbook Synthesis

Framework signals 🔴 Regime Change. Playbook: do not fade, follow new trend.

No new longs until regime flips
Existing positions: reduce or hedge
Watch bellwethers (MSTR, COIN, miners) for early reversal signs
Potential entry zone: ~$61K–$69K confluence

Level 7 · Risk

Invalidation & What Can Go Wrong

The ~$69K kill level was breached intraweek but has not been violated on a weekly or monthly close. This is the single most important variable right now — the market is on the razor's edge. The intraweek breach favors the bear case, but until a closing violation occurs, the extended wave 3 count is technically alive (if damaged).

~$69K intraweek breach: wick below occurred — bear case favored but not confirmed
Weekly/monthly close below ~$69K: kills both bull counts — only bear ABC remains
Weekly close back above $72K+: reclaims territory, extended count regains credibility
Extended count risk: impulsive reversal from here catches bears offside
Time factor: every week spent near ~$69K without a close below favors bears — distribution, not accumulation

⚠ Elliott Wave Overlay — Not Scored

Primary count (bearish, favored): 5-wave impulse from 2022 low (~$16.7K) to ~$132K is complete. Currently in wave A of a larger ABC correction. The 50% retracement (~$74K) has been lost. Critical level: ~$69K — top of Wave 1. Price wicked below ~$69K intraweek, but has not closed below on a weekly or monthly basis. A weekly close below would definitively confirm the bear count and eliminate all bullish wave interpretations. The market is sitting precisely on the decision point — the intraweek breach favors bears, the absence of a closing violation keeps the door open for bulls. The 61.8% at ~$61K aligns with channel support — the next major target if ~$69K gives way on a closing basis.

↗ Alternative Count — Extended Wave 3

Alternative count (bullish): The move from ~$16.7K to ~$132K did not complete a full 5-wave cycle. Instead, we are witnessing an extended wave 3 at a higher degree — a 9-wave subdivision rather than the standard 5. Under this count, the current decline is wave 6 of the extension, and wave 7 (the final impulse sub-wave of extended wave 3) is about to begin. This would be followed by wave 4 and wave 5 at the higher order, implying significantly higher prices ahead.

Critical EW rule: The current corrective wave (wave 4 inside extended wave 3) must not close below the top of wave 1 of wave 3 — the ~$69K level. This level was breached intraweek — the wick went below — but has not been violated on a weekly or monthly closing basis. The extended count is alive but damaged. Purists would argue an intraweek breach already disqualifies the count; pragmatists note that only closing violations are definitive in EW practice. Either way, this count is hanging by a thread. A weekly close below ~$69K eliminates it entirely.

What would confirm: Price holds above ~$69K, followed by an impulsive (not corrective) reversal. Weekly close back above ~$88K (38.2% Fib) with expanding volume would be the first structural signal. Bellwether stocks (MSTR, COIN) leading the turn would add conviction. Under this count, the $61K–$69K zone is the buying opportunity, not a level to fear.

Supplementary

Coppock Curve

−44.0

Deeply negative and accelerating downward. Last time this negative was the 2022 bear market. Long-term sell signal confirmed.

BTC Bellwethers

Weak

MSTR, COIN, miners all in downtrends. No signs of basing or relative strength vs BTC.

On-Chain MVRV

1.4x

Above 1.0 (not capitulation). Historical bottoms at 0.8–0.9x. More downside possible.

Scenarios & Key Levels

Bull Case — Extended Wave 3 (20% probability, declining)

Extended count alive but damaged by the intraweek breach of ~$69K. If this is wave 6 of the extension, wave 7 begins here targeting $90K–$100K+. But the market must close the week above ~$69K to keep this count viable. Every week spent at this level without impulsive reversal erodes probability further.

Survival: ~$69K weekly close · Trigger: ~$88K reclaim

Bear Case — 5 Waves Complete (80% probability, rising)

Full 5-wave impulse from 2022 is done. The intraweek breach of ~$69K is the market testing the kill level — weekly or monthly close below seals it. Correction deepens toward 61.8% (~$61K) and potentially 78.6% (~$41K). Timeline: 3–6 months of weakness with bear rallies that fail at lower highs.

Key level: ~$61K (61.8% Fib breakdown)

Level	Price	Type	Significance
38.2% Fib	~$88K	Resistance	Bull reclaim target — close above invalidates bear thesis
Wave 1 Top	~$69K	BREACHED INTRAWEEK	EW kill level — wicked below, no weekly/monthly close below. This week decisive.
61.8% + Channel	~$61K	Confluence Support	Channel lower bound + Fibonacci — potential Wave A bottom
78.6% Fib	~$41K	Deep Support	Extreme scenario if 61.8% fails — full bear territory

📋

This Week's Playbook

Regime state: 🔴 Regime Change — on the edge. The framework scores bearish across five of eight dimensions. The ~$69K kill level was breached intraweek — the wick went below — but no weekly or monthly close has confirmed the breakdown. This is not a comfortable hold in either direction. The bear case is favored but not sealed.

Micro structure matters. At the sub-wave level, wave A likely needs one more leg down before completing — the typical internal count is 5-3-5, and we appear to be in the final impulse. Wave B would then retrace 50–61.8% of A (preferred) before wave C takes price to the final corrective target. An alternative 3-3-5 flat could see wave B retrace up to 100% of A, but this is not the preferred count.

Action: Stay sidelined. We would initiate a long position only under two conditions: (1) one more leg down completes wave A with a capitulation signature — volume spike, DVOL inversion, Fear & Greed below 10 — followed by a clear wave B setup, or (2) a structural trend break to the upside that signals a potential move back toward all-time highs, confirming the extended wave 3 count.

Bottom line: there are better opportunities to trade right now. The risk/reward on BTC at ~$69K is poor in both directions — too close to the kill level for a confident long, too oversold for an aggressive short. Wait for resolution. The market will tell you when it's ready.