The 25 constituents are grouped into seven sectors, each representing a distinct layer of the agentic software stack:
S1 · MAG7 Gateway (MSFT, GOOGL, AAPL) — The platform incumbents integrating agentic capabilities into their existing distribution. Gateway because everything flows through them.
S2 · Platform (SAP, NOW, CRM, WDAY) — Enterprise software platforms attempting the agentic pivot. The Cannibalize or Die cohort: they must eat their own revenue to survive.
S3 · Toll Booth (NET, DDOG, CRWD, TWLO, OKTA) — Infrastructure-as-a-service companies that collect rent on every agentic transaction. Cloudflare handles the traffic, Datadog monitors it, CrowdStrike secures it.
S4 · Neocloud / Edge (DOCN, FSLY, QCOM) — Smaller cloud and edge compute providers. Higher beta, more speculative, but positioned where compute demand is shifting.
S5 · Data / Search (SNOW, MDB, ESTC) — The data layer. Agents need to read, query, and search structured and unstructured data. These companies provide the plumbing.
S6 · Vertical (VEEV, INTU, PTC, CSGP, IOT) — Domain-specific software with deep moats: healthcare (Veeva), tax (Intuit), manufacturing (PTC), real estate (CoStar), industrial IoT (Samsara).
S7 · Commerce + Orchestration (SHOP, PLTR) — Companies that orchestrate workflows across multiple agentic systems. Shopify for commerce, Palantir for enterprise data fusion.
The same five dimensions used for macro instruments — Position, Momentum, Volume, Volatility, Fragility — are applied to each of the 25 constituents. The only difference is context: a Bollinger squeeze on CRWD means something different than on GLD, but the mechanics of fragility detection are identical.
Each sector gets an equal-weighted average temperature. The composite AW25 index is the equal-weighted average across all 25 constituents, rebased to 1,000.
Sector rotation detection: When S3 Toll Booth heats up from 35 to 65 over two weeks while S2 Platform drops from 55 to 30, capital is rotating from platform incumbents to infrastructure picks-and-shovels. This happens before earnings revisions, before analyst upgrades, before headlines.
Fragility monitoring: A sector reading 80+ with high fragility scores is extended. A sector reading 25 with low fragility is washed out and potentially coiled for a move. The fragility score turns temperature from a lagging indicator into a forward-looking risk signal.
Active signals: The dashboard flags OBV divergence, Bollinger coiling, and 200-DMA bounces/breaches automatically. These are the specific technical conditions that precede large moves.
AW25 is published as a research dossier with the full methodology and constituent rationale. The live dashboard updates daily at 23:00 UTC. We use AW25 sector temperature as an input to the Agentic Winners reference portfolio rotation decisions.
Live Dashboard →Full Dossier →
