# Closelook — Investment Research & Portfolio Intelligence

> Closelook is an independent investment research platform operated by
> Closelook Venture GmbH (Teltow, Germany). We publish proprietary
> frameworks, weekly market signals, live model portfolios, and
> institutional-grade research dossiers covering AI infrastructure,
> semiconductors, global tech, macro allocation, and digital assets.
> Founded and managed by Thomas Look. ~7,130 LinkedIn newsletter subscribers.

## MCP Server (for AI agents)
Closelook Intelligence is available as a free, read-only remote MCP server
(Streamable HTTP): https://closelook-mcp.look-investment-gmbh.workers.dev/mcp
25 tools (v0.9.0): search_closelook (research corpus), define_term (260+ entry
glossary), get_index_snapshot / compare_indices (proprietary Closelook indices,
end-of-day), get_stock_snapshot / get_price_history / get_signal_scores /
get_print_record (per-ticker), get_df_ranking / get_ranking (the nightly ranking
families), get_tech_board / get_wire (Tech Signal Board, analyst + earnings
wires), get_money_temperature / get_macro_regime / get_sector_matrix /
get_sovereign_pressure / get_mag_pulse / get_ratio_pair / get_factor_regime /
get_credit_stress (the Lab boards), get_portfolio_summary (public book snapshot), get_tape (latest cards), get_chart_pick, get_market_instrument (board instruments), get_latest_view (Morning 10 + Daily Pulse).
Own-IP data only; always attribute and link back to closelook.net.

## Core Research Products
- Daily Check-in Hub: One-page aggregate — Market Temperature, latest Pulse, next Weekly Signal, latest Newsletter → /today/
- Daily Pulse: Short pre-market summary, published Mon-Fri 08:30 New York → /pulse/
- The Morning 10: Ten-point daily market overview (WHAT · IF · WHY · THEN grammar), Mon-Fri 08:00 CET, dated permalinks → /morning-10/
- The Library: Investing classics distilled — infographic, pillars, utility read and a downloadable Applied Pack (spreadsheet + screener) per work, SHA-256 + VirusTotal-verified → /library/
- Weekly Signal: 7-level, 9-dimension market regime analysis, Sunday 22:00 Berlin → /weekly/
<!-- auto:indices:start -->
- Rubin Build-Out 100: The AI data-centre build-out index — 125 constituents across 24 sub-sectors and 8 layers, EW/CW/MW. → /indices/rubin/
- HALO 100: Broad AI hardware + software growth ecosystem, 100 names, EW/CW/MW. → /indices/halo/
- Euro-AI 50: Europe’s AI supply chain from pixels to atoms — 50 names with Revenue-Intensity scoring. → /indices/euro-ai/
- Agentic Winners 40: Who captures AI’s value — 40 names in 4 tiers, ABR-gated, performance plays no role in selection. → /indices/aw40/
- Agentic Ecosystem Index (AEI): The AI operating system — the companies that operate, secure and monetise running AI, 9 lifecycle tiers. → /indices/agentic/
- ABR Framework: Agent Beneficiary Ratio — 5-dimension AI-disruption scoring, three archetypes. → /indices/abr/
- T1 Index: The tier-one basket the T1 book tracks. → /indices/t1/
- Compare indices: All Closelook indices and their variants rebased to 100 on one chart. → /indices/compare/
- Stocks A–Z: Every covered name — chart, performance, quality, technicals, earnings, peers. → /stocks/
- Daily Rankings: Six leaderboard families from the house engines, rebuilt every market morning. → /stocks/rankings/
- Chart Terminal: Any ticker with drawing tools, oscillators, the grid and card exports. → /indices/stock/
<!-- auto:indices:end -->
- Money Temperature: 8-instrument macro regime scoring with cointegration → /lab/temperature/
- Sector Engine: Global Sector × Region matrix (11 sectors × 4 regions = 44 cells) — Bloomberg-Institutional-only IP made public → /lab/sectors/
- Section Newsletters → /newsletter/ — Global Stock Markets (Sat) → /newsletter/global/ · US Stock Markets (Sun) → /newsletter/us-stocks/ · Hypergrowth (Sun) → /newsletter/hypergrowth/ · Intel → /newsletter/intel/ · External Insights → /newsletter/external-insights/ · C+ Premium → /newsletter/c-plus/ · current edition → /newsletter/current/ · archive (The Vault, C+) → /newsletter/archive/
- On That Day in Markets: Twice-weekly finance-history quiz (Mon/Fri) → /on-that-day/
- Daily Rankings: six leaderboard families from Closelook's own engines, rebuilt every market morning, with per-day frozen archives → /stocks/rankings/
  - Directional Flow: the strongest stock trends, 7 views + daily archive → /stocks/rankings/directional-flow/
  - Country / Sector / Theme Flow: the same trend score over 72 market cuts → /stocks/rankings/country-flow/
  - Flow × Technicals: strong trends near highs, on pullbacks, fresh golden/death crosses → /stocks/rankings/flow-technicals/
  - Up & Down Beta: up-day beta vs down-day beta — leaders, fragile names, unstable betas → /stocks/rankings/up-down-beta/
  - Inside the ETFs: 40 funds ranked by internal member dispersion → /stocks/rankings/etf-dispersion/
<!-- auto:signals:start -->
- Trade Log: Every Add, Reduce, Roll and Exit across the five model portfolios, with the reasoning. → /signals/trades/
- Tech Board: What is hot in global tech, ranked into one board — US, Europe, Asia — after each close. → /signals/board/ · archive → /signals/board/archive/
- Directional Flow: Trend strength and its 5/21/63-day change across ~250 instruments — the change turns before price. → /signals/directional-flow/ · archive → /stocks/rankings/directional-flow/
- The Print Record: One name per docket day — ten prints of beat-vs-reaction history and the metric that decides. → /signals/print-record/
- Analyst Wire: Every US sell-side call, newest first, paired with our read of the name. → /signals/analysts/ · archive → /signals/analysts/archive/
- Earnings Wire: US prints against consensus EPS, and the forward calendar of what prints next. → /signals/earnings/ · archive → /signals/earnings/archive/
- Pattern Engine: Live pattern-hit signals from five engines — PEAD, sector RS, regime signature, support confluence. → /signals/scanner/
- AW40 Overlay: The Agentic Winners index against its benchmarks, Rubin and the software/semis rotation. → /signals/aw25-overlay/
<!-- auto:signals:end -->
- Daily Movers: the day's biggest gainers and losers across the coverage, dated archive per session → /markets/movers/
- The Midday 10: ten-point intraday US market read, ~12:30 New York on trading days → /midday-10/
- Trading-day hubs: one page per trading day tying together Morning 10, Pulse, Midday 10, signals and prints → /days/
- Weekly Chart Pick: one standout name from the Directional Flow engine each week, worked through by hand → /chart-pick/
- AI-Order Signal Board: five order-book tripwires vs the Taiwan monthly-revenue rail — the AI hardware order book read from the supply chain's own prints → /lab/ai-order/
- Market Structure lab: up/down-beta states, breadth and cross-asset context across 2,700 stocks → /lab/market-structure/
- Factor Regime lab: which factor profiles the market currently pays for → /lab/factor-regime/
- 5 Reference Portfolios: skin-in-the-game baskets implementing the theses → /portfolios/
<!-- auto:portfolios:start -->
  - AI Build-Out: Multi-currency AI-infrastructure book — silicon, networking, memory, data platforms. → /portfolios/ai-buildout/
  - Hypergrowth: AI-native and agentic leaders; the book behind the Hypergrowth letter. → /portfolios/hypergrowth/
  - Global Tech 50: Ex-US technology at a wide discount — the global book. → /portfolios/global-tech-50/
  - Global ETFs: Macro allocation across geographies, commodities and crypto via funds. → /portfolios/global-etfs/
  - Derivatives: Covered calls and cash-secured puts; high cash at all times. → /portfolios/derivatives/
  - Rubin EW tracker: The Rubin Build-Out 100 held equal-weight, tracked 1:1. → /portfolios/rubin-ew/
  - Rubin Momentum tracker: The Rubin momentum-weight variant as a book. → /portfolios/rubin-momentum/
  - Rubin Sector Rotation: Rubin sub-indices rotated by relative strength. → /portfolios/rubin-sector-rotation/
  - Jensen: The NVIDIA-ecosystem book. → /portfolios/jensen/
  - T1: The tier-one basket book. → /portfolios/t1/
  - Trade the Look: How the books are run — the operating notes. → /portfolios/trade-the-look/
<!-- auto:portfolios:end -->

## Research Dossiers
- Agentic Winners 40: 40-name equal-weight index tracking who captures the value of the agentic-AI disruption of knowledge work. Four ABR-gated tiers (Megacap Gateway, Control Plane, Application Leaders, Endpoints), with segment (Enterprise / Consumer) and region (US / Europe / Asia) sub-indices → /reports/agentic-winners
- Money Temperature: Institutional-grade macro regime analysis made accessible. Engle-Granger, Hurst Exponent, Absorption Ratio, Cascade Tracking — as a daily narrated live dashboard → /reports/money-temperature
- AI Chip Buildout: Global Dependencies 2026–2030 → /reports/ai-chip-buildout.html
- The Physics of Profit: NVIDIA's Revenue Multiplier → /reports/nvidia-ecosystem.html
- NVIDIA 2030: The Operating System of Global Intelligence → /reports/nvidia-2030.html
- Agentic Infrastructure Software: The Orchestration Layer → /reports/agentic-infra.html
- Agentic Application Software: The SaaSpocalypse Map → /reports/agentic-applications.html
- The Software-Credit Nexus → /reports/software-credit-nexus.html
- Industrial & Physical AI: Global Dependencies 2026–2030 → /reports/industrial-ai.html
- Euro-AI Sovereign Index: From Pixels to Atoms → /reports/euro-ai-index.html
- Structural Awareness: Detecting Regime Change → /reports/structural-awareness.html

## Proprietary Frameworks & Concepts
- Agent Beneficiary Ratio (ABR): 5-dimension scoring for AI disruption impact on public companies. Three archetypes: Natural Position, Cannibalize or Die, Terminal.
- Weekly Signal Composite: Market regime scoring 0-100. 80+ Green, 50-79 Yellow, 0-49 Red. Nine dimensions: Macro (20%), Liquidity (15%), Trend (15%), Participation (15%), Breadth (10%), Volatility (10%), Sentiment (10%), Momentum (5%).
- Functional Index: Supply-chain-function-weighted indices (vs. cap-weighted ETFs like SMH/SOXX). Six layers: Silicon, Memory, Networking, Compute, Data Platforms, End Markets.
- SaaSpocalypse: Thesis that agentic AI destroys the SaaS pricing moat. Maps winners/losers.
- Software-Credit Nexus: Connection between software multiples collapse and private credit crisis risk.
- Sentinel Tickers: ASML, Advantest, Micron as leading indicators for the semiconductor cycle.

## Access
- Free: most editorial (Daily Pulse, reports/reads, 101, glossary, The Wire, signal reads) is open.
- C+ (paid): live model portfolios + certain signal surfaces are gated. Pay gate runs through Substack; unlock closelook.net via a one-time code at /account/unlock/. Current pricing and tiers → /subscribe/

## Lab — Tactical Research Tools
<!-- auto:lab:start -->
Research tools on the Closelook data stack — 29 boards in six groups; most re-bake nightly after the US close, each page states its own as-of date. Data surfaces in an investment diary, never advice.
- Hub: → /lab/
- Macro & regime:
  - Money Temperature — Money-regime monitor · 8 instruments across 5 dimensions, one temperature. → /lab/temperature/
  - Structural Inflation — Leading inflation-regime monitor · 26 FRED series, 7 buckets, 3 gauges. → /lab/macro/inflation/
  - Growth & Recession — Leading growth-and-recession monitor · ~19 FRED series, 5 buckets. → /lab/macro/growth/
  - Factor Regime — Momentum vs low-vol as one line — SPMO/SPLV level, trend and percentile. → /lab/factor-regime/
  - Sovereign Pressure — G7 sovereign yields, the 10s30s slope and a z-scored Pressure Index — the bond-vigilantes gauge. → /lab/sovereign-pressure/
  - Rates X-Ray — The Treasury curve, key spreads and the rate regime on one board. → /lab/rates/
  - AI Credit Stress Tape — Who funds the AI build-out and at what price — 6 funding rungs, 18 issuers, bellwether bonds and OAS. → /lab/credit-stress/
  - Cointegration Monitor — Rolling pair-trade monitor · 6 cross-asset pairs, spread z-scores and half-lives. → /lab/cointegration/
- Market structure:
  - Market X-Ray — Beta & Breadth — Up/down-beta states, breadth and decoupling across ~340 names — the market under the chart. → /lab/market-structure/
    · Breadth → /lab/market-structure/breadth/ · Divergence → /lab/market-structure/divergence/ · Regime → /lab/market-structure/regime/ · Ratio quality → /lab/market-structure/ratio-quality/ · Alert stack → /lab/market-structure/alert-stack/ · Anomaly → /lab/market-structure/anomaly/ · Narrative → /lab/market-structure/narrative/ · Every name, scored → /lab/market-structure/names/
  - Sector Dispersion — Breadth vs the Sector — What the members of 40 ETFs are doing underneath the fund — median vs index, A/D line. → /lab/etf-dispersion/
  - Ratio Chart — Any two markets as one ratio line — log scale, full history, high/low marked, PNG export; 10 preset pairs. → /lab/ratio/
  - Lab Grid — 60+ ETFs scored by Hurst, cointegration density and regime — sortable. → /lab/grid/
  - Company Screener — Every covered company on the three-layer Closelook score, filterable. → /lab/screener/
- Sectors & rotation:
  - Resource Markets — Canada, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, Norway vs ACWI — the resource-rotation gauge with a 0–10 breadth signal. → /lab/resource-markets/
  - Global Sector Engine — 11 sectors × 4 regions heatmap with the daily rotation signal and cross-region spreads. → /lab/sectors/
    · US → /lab/sectors/us/ · Europe → /lab/sectors/europe/ · Asia-Pac DM → /lab/sectors/asiapacdm/ · EM → /lab/sectors/em/ · Tech themes → /lab/sectors/tech/
  - Sector Rotation — 37 sectors across Rubin, HALO and Euro-AI ranked multi-horizon — the rotation map inside the indices. → /lab/sector-rotation/
  - SPDR Sector Relative Strength — The 11 SPDR sector ETFs ranked by relative strength — RS, momentum, z-score, RRG quadrant. → /lab/patterns/sector-rs/
  - Rubin Rotation Radar — Leadership inside the Rubin 100 — sub-index relative strength as a rotation radar. → /lab/rubin-rotation/
  - The AI Handoff Board — Nine ratios, three indices, four stages — where AI’s value is handing off, with a scoreboard. → /lab/ai-handoff/
  - Mag Pulse — Daily board on the Mag Six plus the ORCL torque — three cohorts, MAGS as the foil. → /lab/mag-pulse/
- AI build-out:
  - AI Build-Out Index Family — The four supply-side AI hardware pulses as one index family. → /lab/ai-buildout/
  - Compute Spot Tightness — CCST — GPU rental rates and availability across 40+ providers — is compute tightening? → /lab/compute-tightness/
  - Taiwan AI Supply Pulse — Taiwan monthly revenue prints across the AI supply chain, read as one pulse. → /lab/taiwan-ai-pulse/
  - Memory / HBM Pulse — HBM and DRAM names and spot prices as one memory pulse. → /lab/memory-hbm-pulse/
  - Semicap / Test Pulse — Semicap and test equipment names as a pulse of capacity being built. → /lab/semicap-test-pulse/
  - AI-Order Signal Board — Five order-book tripwires vs the Taiwan revenue rail — the AI hardware order book from the supply chain’s own prints. → /lab/ai-order/
  - Agentic Demand Map — Eight agentic-demand pulses plus cross-checks — where agentic software is actually being bought. → /lab/agentic-demand/
    · Enterprise infrastructure → /lab/agentic-demand/enterprise-infrastructure/ · Enterprise workflow → /lab/agentic-demand/enterprise-workflow/ · Enterprise application → /lab/agentic-demand/enterprise-application/ · Consumer cloud → /lab/agentic-demand/consumer-cloud/ · Consumer endpoint → /lab/agentic-demand/consumer-endpoint/ · Forward deployment → /lab/agentic-demand/forward-deployment/ · Industrial / physical → /lab/agentic-demand/industrial-physical/ · Agentic security → /lab/agentic-demand/agentic-security/ · Token split → /lab/agentic-demand/token-split/ · Tollbooth → /lab/agentic-demand/tollbooth/
- Patterns & charts:
  - Pattern Lab — Methodology hub for the house patterns — PEAD, Pattern 03, sector RS, support confluence, regime signature. → /lab/patterns/
    · PEAD → /lab/patterns/pead/ · Pattern 03 → /lab/patterns/pattern-03/ · Support confluence → /lab/patterns/support-confluence/ · Regime signature → /lab/patterns/regime-signature/ · Live engines → → /signals/scanner/
- Visualisations:
  - Bar Races — Animated bar races over the house data — megacaps, index leadership, sector rotation, temperature. → /lab/race/
    · AI megacaps → /lab/race/ai-megacaps/ · Index leadership → /lab/race/index-leadership/ · Sector rotation → /lab/race/sector-rotation/ · Temperature → /lab/race/temperature/
<!-- auto:lab:end -->
- Pattern Lab methodology pages:
  - PEAD methodology (3-day post-earnings drift, 63-day hold, ±3% direction thresholds) → /lab/patterns/pead/
  - Sector Relative Strength methodology (11 SPDR vs SPY, 21d/63d/252d horizons) → /lab/patterns/sector-rs/
  - Regime Signature methodology (slope × realised-volatility 2×2 classifier) → /lab/patterns/regime-signature/
  - Support Confluence methodology (4-horizon log-regression channel clustering) → /lab/patterns/support-confluence/
  - Pattern 03 — NVIDIA Strategic Authority (13-stake dossier, XIRR tracking, calendar) → /lab/patterns/pattern-03/
- AW40 (40 agentic-winner stocks, 4 tiers, Enterprise/Consumer cut, ABR-gated) → /indices/aw40/

## Pattern Engine — Live Signals
The operational counterpart to Pattern Lab. Five live scanners run nightly after US close,
each surfacing a different proprietary pattern. Updated 22:30 UTC on US trading days.
- Hub: → /signals/scanner/
- PEAD live (Long Setups + Short Setups, 3-day cumulative abnormal return vs benchmark) → /signals/scanner/pead/
- Sector Relative Strength (top/bottom 3 callouts + 11-row scan table sorted by 1d vs SPY) → /signals/scanner/sector-rs/
- Regime Signature (2×2 quadrant grid + "regime shifts · last 5 sessions" callout) → /signals/scanner/regime-signature/
- Pattern 03 — NVIDIA Strategic Authority (next 5 catalysts + recent 3 stakes + held cohort table) → /signals/scanner/pattern-03/
- Support Confluence (client-side signal grid, 4-horizon channel clustering) → /signals/scanner/support-confluence/

## Lab Reads — Methodology Dossiers
Long-form research dossiers explaining the academic foundation, mechanics, failure modes,
and worked historical examples behind each formalized pattern. Distinguished from market-thesis
Reports (those are also under /reports/ but tagged differently).
- Post-Earnings Announcement Drift (PEAD) — Ball-Brown 1968 → modern Pattern Engine implementation → /reports/post-earnings-drift/
- Cointegration as Regime — V3 evergreen methodology (Engle-Granger + Hurst + Ornstein-Uhlenbeck halflife) → /reports/cointegration-regime/
- Pattern 03 — NVIDIA Strategic Authority dossier (full 13-stake portfolio + 3 exits, XIRR tracking) → /reports/pattern-03-nvidia-strategic-authority/

## AI Infrastructure 101 — Investor's Reference
Structured reference mapping the AI build-out from the investor's perspective.
40+ entries across proprietary frameworks, supply chain constraints, market themes, and Lab explainers.
- Hub: → /101/
- Money Temperature (macro regime scoring methodology) → /101/money-temperature/
- Temperature Dimensions (Position / Momentum / Volume / Volatility / Fragility) → /101/temperature-dimensions/
- Agentic Winners 40 (40 names, four ABR-gated tiers, who captures agentic-AI value) → /101/agentic-winners-25/
- Cointegration Monitor (cross-asset relationship health) → /101/cointegration/
- Half-Life (mean-reversion speed for cointegrated pairs) → /101/half-life/
- Hurst Exponent (persistence vs mean-reversion) → /101/hurst-exponent/
- Cascade Tracker (5-Domino model of regime breakdown) → /101/cascade-tracker/
- Stack Flip (200-day SMA crossings as regime signals) → /101/stack-flip/
- Bollinger Coiling (volatility compression as pre-break signal) → /101/bb-coiling/
- Divergence (price vs RSI/OBV — warnings with long fuses) → /101/divergence/
- Functional Index (why it beats cap-weighted ETFs) → /101/functional-index/
- ABR Framework (5D AI disruption scoring) → /101/abr/
- Sentinel Tickers (ASML, Advantest, Micron) → /101/sentinel-tickers/
- Weekly Signal Composite (7 levels, 9 dimensions) → /101/weekly-signal/
- SaaSpocalypse (agentic AI vs SaaS) → /101/saaspocalypse/
- Packaging Bottleneck → /101/packaging-bottleneck/
- Memory Wall & HBM Economics → /101/memory-wall/
- CapEx Cliff Question → /101/capex-cliff/
- Agentic AI Winners & Losers → /101/agentic-disruption/
- AI Infrastructure Outlook 2026 → /101/outlook-2026/

## Per-Ticker Coverage
- Asset pages for ~2,700 global stocks — live chart with drawing tools, market structure read,
  Elliott-wave candidates, fundamentals, Closelook company score (three-layer: literature metrics,
  module scores, composite), index memberships, directional flow. Examples:
  /indices/stock/nvda/ · /indices/stock/000660.ks/ (SK Hynix) · /indices/stock/asml/
- Glossary: 218 defined terms across market structure, semiconductors, accounting and the
  Closelook frameworks, each with definition + extended read → /glossary/

## Editorial Series
- Heresies: contrarian long-reads challenging investment consensus → /heresies/
- The Wire: 24/7 plain-English reads from the desk, each linked to its tool → /wire/
- The Tape: timestamped market cards — session wraps, macro prints, earnings, outliers → /tape/
- Worth a Read: curated external voices, our own words with links out → /insights/
- Strategies: applied method posts → /strategies/

## Author
- Thomas Look, Managing Director, Closelook Venture GmbH → /about/thomas-look/
- About Closelook (what it is, who runs it) → /about/ · Editorial policy (two production modes, AI disclosure, corrections) → /about/editorial-policy/
  LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-look/
  X/Twitter: https://x.com/ThomasLook5
  Substack: https://closelooknet.substack.com

## Contact
- Web: https://closelook.net
- Newsletter: https://closelooknet.substack.com

## Full page catalog
- Machine-generated catalog of every indexable page (title + description + URL), regenerated at each build: https://closelook.net/llms-catalog.txt